Investment Playbook
The views and forecasts in this section represent the opinion of ICM/TOC-23 as of June 15, 2026 and are subject to change without notice. Third-party forecasts referenced herein are attributed to their original sources and do not represent TOC-23 opinions. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and actual results may vary.
1. U.S.—Iran Peace Deal Reached: Strait of Hormuz to Reopen, Oil Slides
- U.S. crude oil closed down 4.8% to $80.75 per barrel on the deal news — yet remains up roughly 40% since the start of 2026, reflecting the severity of the prior supply shock driven by an estimated 14 million barrels per day of daily shortfall caused by the strait's closure.
- Global bond yields fell sharply in response, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury dropping to the 4.46% level as the accord defused near-term inflation fears tied to energy prices that had driven May CPI to 4.2% year-over-year — its highest reading since 2023.
- Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, full normalization of energy flows is expected to take months due to logistical challenges clearing the vessel backlog in the Gulf and residual concerns about Iranian naval mines, keeping the energy sector in focus for investors through H2 2026.
2. SpaceX Blasts Off With Record-Breaking $75 Billion IPO
- The IPO priced at $135 per share, valuing SpaceX at approximately $1.75 trillion at listing; shares hit an intraday high of $168.75 on debut day — a 25% pop from the offering price — briefly pushing SpaceX's market cap to roughly $2.21 trillion, within striking distance of Amazon's valuation.
- SpaceX's trading volume on debut day exceeded $33 billion in dollar terms, surpassing the combined volume of QQQ ($22B) and SPY ($18B) that same session, underscoring extraordinary retail and institutional demand; it is the first of a potential trio of mega-IPOs expected from AI-adjacent companies this year, with generative AI and generative AI anticipated to list above $1 trillion valuations each.
- Alphabet, which owns roughly 4.9% of SpaceX, emerged as a significant hidden beneficiary, with that stake now worth an estimated $105 billion — one of the most lucrative private market bets in the tech giant's history — while an amended IPO filing hinting at future "significant equity" issuances sparked fresh speculation around a potential SpaceX—Tesla merger.
3. Alphabet's $84.75 Billion Equity Capital Raise Sets All-Time Record to Fund AI Buildout
- The offering structure comprises $30 billion in underwritten public offerings (split between mandatory convertible preferred stock and common/Class C shares), a $40 billion at-the-market program to be executed over time beginning in Q3 2026, and the $10 billion Berkshire placement — topping Petróleo Brasileiro's $70 billion offering in 2010 as the single largest equity transaction ever completed.
- Alphabet had previously updated its full-year capital expenditure guidance to as much as $190 billion for 2026, and the equity raise complements more than $85 billion in debt issuances over the prior 12 months; the company held approximately $127 billion in cash and equivalents as of March 2026 before the transaction closed.
- The deal is emblematic of a broader hyperscaler arms race: U.S. tech giants Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta are collectively expected to spend over $700 billion in combined capital expenditures in 2026 alone, with Wall Street analysts projecting total AI capex could climb above $1 trillion as early as 2027.
4. Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady Ahead of Critical June 16–17 FOMC Meeting
- The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.548% heading into the FOMC meeting on June 10, with the 30-year yield at 5.029% — levels that represent what analysts describe as a two-decade high in the term premium demanded by investors — while the yield on 10-year Treasuries now exceeds the S&P 500's earnings yield by a margin not seen since the tail end of the dot-com bust in early 2002.
- Prediction markets priced the probability of no rate change at the June 16–17 meeting at approximately 97–99%, reflecting the Fed's April statement that "inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices" — language reinforced by a 23.5% energy price surge tied to the now-resolved geopolitical conflict.
- The Iran peace deal has injected new complexity ahead of Wednesday's decision: falling oil prices could meaningfully reduce near-term inflation pressure, yet the Fed will need several months of cooling data before pivoting, keeping rate-cut expectations firmly anchored in 2027 and leaving markets navigating a prolonged higher-for-longer environment.
5. AI Fintech Ramp Raises $750 Million at $44 Billion Valuation, Leading a Week of Mega-Rounds
- Ramp's $44 billion valuation represents a near-threefold increase from its $16 billion valuation just months prior, driven by annualized revenue now exceeding $1.5 billion (per Bloomberg), positive free cash flow, and a customer base that has grown from 50,000 to over 70,000 companies — including Visa, Uber, Shopify, Anduril, and Figma — in less than a year.
- The Ramp round headlined a week in which startup investors backed more than a dozen rounds in the multiple hundreds of millions, including a $500 million raise for AI startup Flourish (backed by Jeff Bezos, Lux Capital, and Google Ventures) and a $465 million Series G for fusion energy company Helion at a $15.5 billion post-money valuation — illustrating capital concentration in AI and deep tech.
- Ramp has...
Source: TOC-23 Investment Research, drawing on financial press, public-company disclosures, and market data identified via automated web research · June 15, 2026. Statistics, forecasts, and views attributed to outside sources in the summaries above reflect those sources’ views and do not represent TOC-23 opinions.
Proxy methodology: TOC-23 selects a single ETF or index as the proxy for each asset class. Proxies are chosen for their representativeness of the underlying asset class, liquidity, and length of available price history; the same proxy is used consistently period-over-period to avoid look-back bias. The proxy list is reviewed periodically by the TOC-23 Investment Committee.
Proxies shown in the table are ETFs and indices used to represent each asset class. Index returns are unmanaged, assume reinvestment of dividends, do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, trading costs, or taxes, and are not directly investable. ETF returns reflect each fund’s expense ratio but do not reflect TOC-23 advisory fees, which would reduce returns. The particular issuers, sector weightings, and geographies in a client account will differ from the index. See full disclosures →
Returns shown reflect the expense ratio of each underlying proxy but do NOT reflect TOC-23 advisory fees. TOC-23 advisory fees, when applied per the client’s investment advisory agreement, would reduce returns shown. CMA forecasts are stated gross of TOC-23 advisory fees (which vary by client and would reduce actual returns); reflects underlying manager fees where applicable.
| Asset Class | Proxy | YTD | 1Y | 3Y (ann.) | 5Y (ann.) | 10Y (ann.) | P/E | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | BIL | 1.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | — | 3.9% |
| ST Bonds | SHY | 0.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | — | 3.71% |
| Muni Bond | MUB | 1.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 1.9% | — | 3.17% |
| Muni High Yield | HYD | 2.2% | 7.7% | 4.3% | -0.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.34% |
| For. Dev. Bond | BNDX | 1.1% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 1.7% | — | 4.46% |
| HY Bond | HYG | 1.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | — | 5.84% |
| EM Bond | EMB | 2.6% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 3.4% | — | 5.04% |
| Bank Loans | BKLN | -0.1% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 5.1% | nan% | — | 6.61% |
| Long Term UST | TLT | 0.4% | 4.9% | -2.0% | -6.4% | -1.8% | — | 4.55% |
| US Equity (LC) | SPY | 10.8% | 26.7% | 21.0% | 13.7% | 15.6% | 27.03 | — |
| US Equity (SC) | IWM | 18.6% | 40.9% | 17.6% | 6.3% | 11.3% | 19.7 | — |
| Int'l Dev. Equity | EFA | 7.3% | 20.4% | 15.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 18.49 | 3.1% |
| EM Equity | EEM | 24.0% | 49.8% | 22.0% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 18.47 | 1.77% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | 11.7% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 31.66 | 3.64% |
| Midstream Energy | AMLP | 12.3% | 13.8% | 18.8% | 14.9% | 6.6% | 14.72 | 7.79% |
| Commod. Fut. | DJP | 21.3% | 29.6% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 6.6% | — | — |
| Global Infrastructure | IGF | 7.6% | 16.0% | 15.4% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 22.2 | 2.97% |
| HFs Equity Hedge | QAI | 8.7% | 16.0% | 10.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | — | 1.39% |
| HFs Event-Driven | PSR | 16.0% | 16.3% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 5.9% | — | 2.39% |
| HFs Relative Value | FLOT | 2.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.6% |
| HFs Macro | DBMF | 10.1% | 27.5% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | — | 5.17% |
| Private Equity | PSP | -12.2% | -6.1% | 9.4% | -0.3% | 8.0% | — | 6.34% |
| HFs Multi-Strat | GMOM | 10.2% | 27.0% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | — | 1.59% |
| Private Credit | ARCC | -6.4% | -6.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 12.7% | — | 9.97% |
* CMA Estimate · P/E shown for equity classes only · Returns reflect underlying ETF/index expense ratios but not TOC-23 advisory fees
Source: Yahoo Finance via yfinance · Total returns (price + reinvested dividends), expense-ratio inclusive, gross of TOC-23 advisory fees · as of June 15, 2026 · accessed June 15, 2026
CMA 10-Year Risk-Return Map
Each dot = one asset class. Higher and left = better risk-adjusted return. Hover for details.
Expected returns shown are TOC-23 10-year capital market assumptions stated gross of TOC-23 advisory fees (which vary by client and would reduce actual returns); reflects underlying manager fees where applicable. They are forward-looking estimates and not a guarantee of future results. See Hypothetical Performance disclosure →
Source: TOC-23 Capital Market Assumptions (TOC23_CMA.xlsx) · as of June 15, 2026 · accessed June 15, 2026
Private Markets — TVPI & DPI by Vintage (2010–2023)
Bars = realized distributions (DPI). Dots = total value (TVPI). Gap = unrealized value (RVPI). Hover for IRR.
Source: Cambridge Associates Global PE Index & US VC Index · as of June 30, 2025 · accessed June 15, 2026
Key Private Markets Observations
The observations below represent the views of TOC-23 based on the Cambridge Associates data above. They are not direct quotations from Cambridge Associates.
- PE 10Y net IRR of 13.63% versus ~13.75% S&P 500 mPME suggests the premium is narrowing in recent vintages
- VC 3-year return of 0.13% versus 19.79% S&P 500 mPME reflects historic underperformance from the 2022-23 environment
- DPI is extremely low for 2019-2023 vintages, which we read as signaling continued liquidity challenges
- VC vintage 2010-2013 TVPIs of 3.2-4.6x demonstrate the power of early vintage selection
- Manager selection remains critical: upper vs. lower quartile PE spreads exceed 2,400bps in the Cambridge data
Source data: Cambridge Associates Global PE Index & US VC Index, as of June 30, 2025. Observations represent TOC-23 opinion as of June 15, 2026.
The views and forecasts in this section represent the opinion of ICM/TOC-23 as of June 15, 2026 and are subject to change without notice. Third-party forecasts referenced herein are attributed to their original sources and do not represent TOC-23 opinions. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and actual results may vary.
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)
Conference Board U.S. Leading Economic Index® — April 2026 (Released May 22, 2026)
The LEI rose +0.1% in April 2026 to 97.4 (2016=100), partially recovering from a sharp –0.6% plunge in March. The gain was driven primarily by a rebound in S&P 500 stock prices and an uptick in building permits (2+ unit structures). Despite the monthly uptick, the LEI's six-month change remained negative at –0.7% (Oct 2025–Apr 2026), though this represents a meaningful improvement from the –1.0% contraction in the prior six-month period. The six- and twelve-month growth rates remain negative, signaling fragile economic conditions ahead. The Conference Board expects GDP to expand at a subdued pace, with AI infrastructure investment and data center buildout providing partial offsets to broader headwinds from tariff uncertainty and soft consumer confidence.
Component Assessment — Traffic Light Dashboard
🟢 POSITIVE (3)
▸ Building Permits — increased (2+ unit structures)
▸ Leading Credit Index™ — continued supportive contribution
🟡 NEUTRAL (2)
▸ 10Y–FFR Interest Rate Spread — tight but stable; slight negative bias easing
🔴 NEGATIVE (5)
▸ ISM New Orders Index — manufacturing demand still weak
▸ Mfg New Orders (Consumer Goods) — persistently soft
▸ Initial Unemployment Claims — elevated/rising (inverted = negative)
▸ Avg Weekly Hours (Mfg) — declined, reflecting slack in manufacturing
Source: The Conference Board, Leading Economic Index for the US · accessed June 15, 2026 · view source
US Treasury Yield Curve
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (via Yahoo Finance) · as of June 15, 2026 · accessed June 15, 2026
Global GDP Growth Outlook (2026E)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, ECB, BOJ projections (TOC-23 aggregation) · accessed June 15, 2026
Global Cycle Map — Profit Margins vs. Earnings Growth
Both axes show deviation from 5-year average in percentage points. Each region plotted at three time points: 1 year ago (faded) → 1 quarter ago → latest (bold). Arrows show direction of travel through the cycle. Top-right = mid-cycle expansion; bottom-right = late-cycle margin peak; bottom-left = contraction; top-left = early-cycle recovery.
Data freshness by region:
United States — fresh as of June 15, 2026 (FactSet Earnings Insight) ·
Europe — as of May 8, 2026 (default; web search did not return usable STOXX 600 aggregates) ·
Japan — as of May 8, 2026 (default; web search did not return usable TOPIX aggregates) ·
China — as of May 8, 2026 (default; web search did not return usable MSCI China aggregates) ·
India — as of May 8, 2026 (default; web search did not return usable MSCI India aggregates).
Non-US regional aggregate data sources (Yardeni, MSCI factsheets, LSEG, Daiwa/Nomura) are typically paywalled and not indexed by public web search. Non-US points reflect the last manually-curated baseline; refresh those values in DEFAULT_CYCLE_DATA to update going forward.
Global Business Cycle Update
The global economy remains in an unsynchronized expansion. The United States and Japan sit in mid-cycle expansion phases with above-trend growth and strong corporate earnings, while the Euro Area and United Kingdom are early-cycle as recoveries from 2024 weakness gain traction. China remains late-cycle with persistent property-sector headwinds.
| Economy | Phase | Direction | GDP (2026E) | Inflation | Key Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Mid-Cycle | ▲ Improving | 2.6–2.8% | Elevated at 3.2%, gradual decline | AI capex cycle driving growth |
| China | Late-Cycle | → Stable | 4.4–4.8% | Subdued (sub-1%) | Export strength, weak domestic demand |
| Euro Area | Early-Cycle | ▲ Improving | 1.3% | Moderating toward 2% | German fiscal expansion underway |
| Japan | Mid-Cycle | → Stable | 0.6% | Rising toward 1% | BOJ policy normalization on track |
| United Kingdom | Early-Cycle | ▲ Improving | 1.5% | Wage growth moderating | Recovery from weak 2025 labor market |
| Emerging Markets | Mid-Cycle | → Stable | 4.4% | Mixed by region | India leading at 6.9% growth |
Source: ICM/TOC-23 Investment Committee analysis, drawing on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026), Conference Board Leading Economic Index, Fidelity Asset Allocation Research Team Q2 2026 Business Cycle Update, ECB Economic Bulletin, and BOJ Outlook Report · as of June 15, 2026
The views and forecasts in this section represent the opinion of ICM/TOC-23 as of June 15, 2026 and are subject to change without notice. Third-party forecasts referenced herein are attributed to their original sources and do not represent TOC-23 opinions. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and actual results may vary.
Source: TOC-23 Investment Committee analysis, drawing on Federal Reserve, Conference Board, BLS, FactSet Earnings Insight, and ICE/BAML credit data · as of June 15, 2026 · accessed June 15, 2026
A structured comparison of where the US economy sits across three competing cycle interpretations: Early-Cycle Recovery, Mid-Cycle Expansion, and Late-Cycle / Margin Peak. Each case is weighted by current evidence strength. Click into any tab below for the full argument structure, asset playbook, and watch signals.
At a Glance — Side-by-Side Comparison
- Fed has already cut front end 60bps
- Europe genuinely in recovery
- Yield curve un-inversion
- $725B AI capex boom (+77% YoY)
- 83% of S&P beating EPS
- Credit spreads tight, EM/SC leading
- LEI −2.0% six-month annualized
- Defensive equity leadership (gold)
- Margins at 90th percentile
Deep Dive — Click Through Each Case
Early-Cycle Recovery
The Case FOR ↑
The Case AGAINST ↓
Asset Class Playbook — If This Case Right
What Would Confirm This Case
- LEI six-month annualized turning positive (currently −2.0%)
- ISM new orders sustained breakout above 55
- Initial unemployment claims breaking decisively higher first, then re-falling
- Net margins compressing to 10% range, then re-expanding
Mid-Cycle Expansion
The Case FOR ↑
The Case AGAINST ↓
Asset Class Playbook — Base Case
What Would Break This Case
- Credit spreads widening >100bps from current levels (HY toward 7%+)
- AI capex revisions DOWN for 2027 — the canary if demand softens
- EPS beat rate falling below 70%
- Initial unemployment claims rising above 280k sustained for 4+ weeks
Late-Cycle / Margin Peak
The Case FOR ↑
The Case AGAINST ↓
Asset Class Playbook — If This Case Right
What Would Confirm This Case
- HY credit spreads widening above 400bps
- S&P 500 EPS beat rate dropping below 70% with negative guidance
- Initial unemployment claims rising to 280k+ sustained
- AI capex guidance revisions DOWN for 2027
- Margins compressing in Q2/Q3 2026 reports
Where We Are in the Earnings Cycle
Sector Breakdown — EPS & Revenue Growth
Sorted by EPS growth descending. Bars show relative magnitude scaled to top sector.
| Sector | EPS Growth Y/Y | Rev Growth Y/Y | Beat Rate | EPS Growth Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | +54.3% | +22.1% | 90% | |
| Communication Services | +48.9% | +13.9% | 86% | |
| Consumer Discretionary | +40.9% | +12.4% | 85% | |
| Materials | +35.6% | +8.3% | 82% | |
| Financials | +21.8% | +9.2% | 88% | |
| Industrials | +20.9% | +7.8% | 84% | |
| Utilities | +12.2% | +9.6% | 74% | |
| Real Estate | +6.8% | +5.6% | 76% | |
| Consumer Staples | +5.4% | +4.1% | 78% | |
| Energy | +0.6% | +28.0% | 72% | |
| Health Care | -8.1% | +6.4% | 79% |
Forward Guidance Dashboard
Q2 2026 Guidance Issued
Beat Rate Context
Earnings beat rates remain above long-term averages, but the gap between current beat rates and historical norms is narrowing — a pattern consistent with late-expansion / approaching peak.
5-year avg: 78%
10-year avg: 76%
S&P 500 — Price vs. Earnings (Rebased to 100), with Quarterly EPS Growth
15-year history via Yahoo Finance (monthly prices) and S&P single-quarter operating EPS, extended through forecast using bottom-up consensus growth. Top: Price and TTM EPS both rebased to 100 at start — when price pulls above EPS, that's multiple expansion (P/E rising); when EPS rises faster, multiple compression. Forward P/E on right axis shows absolute valuation level. Bottom: Quarterly EPS Growth Y/Y by month (matches headline earnings-season prints). Dashed segments and lighter bars are forecast.
Source: FactSet Earnings Insight (bottom-up consensus) · Yahoo Finance via yfinance (price history) · S&P operating EPS (TOC-23 compilation) · as of June 15, 2026 · accessed June 15, 2026
Earnings Cycle Assessment — Key Observations
- Q1 2026 blended EPS growth of 28.6% is the highest since Q4 2021 (32.0%), more than doubling the 13.1% consensus estimate in place at March 31 quarter-end — a ~15pp positive intra-season revision driven primarily by Communication Services (Alphabet, Meta) and Consumer Discretionary (Amazon GAAP gains, Ford IEEPA benefit).
- The 84% EPS beat rate is the highest since Q2 2021 (87%), with an aggregate surprise magnitude of 18.2% — far above the 5-year average of 7.3% and the 10-year average of 7.1%, marking the largest surprise magnitude since Q1 2021 (22.2%).
- All 11 GICS sectors reported positive revenue growth for Q1 2026, with blended revenue growth of 11.3% representing the highest revenue growth rate since Q2 2022 (13.9%); revenue beat rate of 80% is above the 5-year (70%) and 10-year (67%) averages.
- The S&P 500 net profit margin reached 13.4% in Q1 2026, the highest since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2009, with Information Technology leading margin expansion (29.1% vs 25.4% year-ago) while Energy reported the sharpest margin compression (6.6% vs 9.6% 5-year average) despite surging revenues.
- Q2 2026 guidance is unusually constructive: 62 S&P 500 companies issued positive EPS guidance vs. 47 negative, with positive issuers well above the 5-year average of 44; forward estimates for Q2 2026 stand at 21.9% growth — above the 5-year average earnings growth rate of 16.4% — setting up a potential 2nd consecutive quarter above 20% growth.
- The AI investment supercycle is a dominant earnings call theme: 337 Q1 earnings calls cited 'AI'; IT (97%), Communication Services (94%), and Financials (92%) had the highest citation rates; companies citing AI on Q1 calls saw an average price increase of 12.7% since March 31 vs. only 2.6% for non-AI-citing companies.
About Kelly Optimization with Higher Moments
Maximizes expected log growth incorporating skewness and kurtosis from TOC-23 CMAs. After-tax: 37%+3.8% NIIT ordinary, 20%+3.8% LTCG, munis exempt. Constraints: min 10% US equity, 5% munis, 2% cash; max 20% illiquids.
Select a Portfolio
Monte Carlo Simulation (30-Year) Hypothetical · see disclosure →
10,000 simulated paths using geometric Brownian motion on TOC-23 CMAs (CMA inputs reflect underlying manager fees where applicable; gross of TOC-23 advisory fees). $50M initial. Shaded band = 10th-90th percentile of simulated outcomes (not a confidence interval around an expected return). The simulation assumes lognormal returns and does not capture fat tails, regime shifts, manager dispersion, illiquidity, or sequence-of-returns risk.
Efficient Frontier — 5 Portfolio Solutions Hypothetical · see disclosure →
An efficient frontier plots the set of portfolios that offer the highest expected return for each level of volatility. The five points below are the Conservative, Moderately Conservative, Moderate, Moderately Aggressive, and Aggressive portfolios produced by TOC-23’s Kelly optimization, each subject to the same allocation constraints described above.
Expected returns are TOC-23 10-year capital market assumptions stated gross of TOC-23 advisory fees (which vary by client and would reduce actual returns); reflects underlying manager fees where applicable. They are hypothetical model outputs derived from TOC-23 CMAs and do not reflect actual portfolio performance. Actual results may be materially lower than shown.
Portfolio Coverage Map — Moderate Target
Maps our approved-investment arsenal against the Moderate portfolio target allocation. Each segment below is an asset class sized by its target weight; the cards underneath show which approved funds fill each slot.
Approved but Outside Moderate Target
These funds are approved but the Moderate portfolio doesn't allocate to their asset class. They may fit other Kelly portfolios (Conservative, Aggressive, etc.) or serve specific client mandates.
EIV Capital Fund V
ArrowMark Global Opportunity Fund V, 503 Capital Partners Tax Exempt Cre…
TOC-23 Approved Investments
This section lists all 17 funds and co-investments that have completed TOC-23 due diligence and are currently approved for client portfolios. It is the complete approved roster — no subset selection has been applied. Inclusion does not constitute a recommendation; suitability depends on each client’s objectives, risk tolerance, and constraints, as set forth in the client’s investment advisory agreement.
Material risks: Private funds and co-investments listed below involve a high degree of risk, including illiquidity, long lock-up periods, leverage, concentration, limited transparency, and the potential loss of principal. They are generally available only to qualified purchasers and accredited investors and are not suitable for all investors. Each investment’s offering documents contain a full description of risks and should be reviewed prior to any investment decision.
Last updated: 2026-05-11 · 17 investments · See Hypothetical Performance disclosure for treatment of target IRR/MOIC/yield →
Hedge Fund (7)
Systematic Total Alpha Fund (STA)
- Leaders in systematic investing with 30+ years of experience
- Combines nine sub-strategies with average cross-correlations of only +0.10
- Leverages BlackRock's massive scale: $26.7T annual trading notional across 300+ venues
Brevan Howard Alpha Strategies Fund
- Quality & diversification of macro trading talent with over 100 individual portfolio allocations
- Highly specialized risk management with over 30 Risk Officers maintaining low trader-to-risk manager ratios (3-5 traders per risk officer)
- Diversification across tens of thousands of positions with no single risk taker receiving more than 3% of fund AUM
The Lexcor Master Fund
- Co-portfolio manager structure with joint responsibility for every investment
- Concentrated portfolio (12-15 long positions) enabling superior risk/return
- Multi-book approach: Long Book (80-100%), Short Book (20-25%), Tail Risk Hedges (5-10%), Opportunistic Book (0-30%)
RA Capital Healthcare Fund LP
- Integration of scientific expertise with multi-stage investment platform spanning public and private markets
- Large internal team of 40+ scientifically trained professionals (PhDs and MDs) embedded in investment process
- Proprietary TechAtlas platform for mapping therapeutic areas and identifying innovation
Southpoint Qualified Fund
- Unique three-bucket portfolio approach across mispriced compounders, special situations, and free options
- Off-the-run names not typically held by long/short peers
- Deep value, private equity mindset applied to public markets
TOMS Capital Investment Management Strategy
- Risk Management Centered Investment Process with dedicated Chief Risk Officer
- Emphasis on Convex Trade and Portfolio Construction using options
- Demonstrated skill in tail hedge timing during market drawdowns
TQ Master Fund LP (The Quarry Flagship Fund)
- Multi-manager platform with 34 portfolio managers across 4 strategy categories
- Low correlation to traditional markets (0.10 correlation to S&P 500)
- Strong risk-adjusted returns with Information Ratio of 2.45
Private Credit (2)
ArrowMark Global Opportunity Fund V
- 14+ years of experience investing in regulatory capital relief with $9.5B invested in 118 distinct transactions
- Market inefficiency in underpenetrated asset class with limited competition and high structural complexity
- Information advantage from investments with 20 banks and exposure to 42 unique lending platforms
503 Capital Partners Tax Exempt Credit Opportunities Fund IV, LP
- Specialized focus on tax-exempt debt structures enabling lower borrowing costs for issuers
- Deep sector expertise in Education, Senior Living, and Waste Transition with dedicated originators
- Strong track record with only one default since inception (0.34% annualized default rate)
Private Equity (3)
Greybull Stewardship III, LP
- Specialized focus on pre-middle market segment with 15+ years of experience
- Proprietary sourcing network with average entry multiple of 5.4x EBITDA
- Purpose-built team of 13 functional experts for small business needs
GQG Private Capital Solutions Fund
- Flexibility across capital structure - can provide equity stakes, revenue shares, and structured financing versus traditional minority equity only
- Cash flow-oriented underwriting approach focusing on durable, contractual revenue streams rather than relying on terminal value
- Focus on underserved lower middle market ($0.5B-$5B AUM) where competition is more limited
Project Ozark - Lapel's Laundromat Franchise Development
- Phase 1 anchors join General Partnership with 15% of fees and carry across entire 25-store portfolio
- East Boston founding location acquired at 46.4% discount ($600K vs $1.1M standard equity)
- Technology-enabled franchise operations vs traditional coin-operated laundromats
Private Real Estate (3)
Roundhouse Multifamily Fund II
- Boots on the ground approach in target markets with 200+ team members across Idaho, Montana, Colorado, and Utah
- 60% of last 20 deals sourced off-market with 30% via limited/broken process
- Vertically integrated platform with 175+ property management professionals across 13 regional locations
Continental Realty Opportunistic Retail Fund II (CRORF II)
- 65-year-old fully integrated owner-operator with deep retail track record
- 57% of acquisitions since 2021 sourced off-market through strong relationships
- 300+ person platform with 7 in-house leasing managers (2x national benchmark)
11 Beacon Street
- Irreplaceable location at intersection of Beacon Hill and Financial District adjacent to State House
- Acquisition at $153/SF representing substantial discount to replacement cost
- Synergy's 13-year ownership history and deep local market expertise
Public Equity (1)
Aperio Long/Short Strategies
- Tax-managed long/short approach with leverage capabilities (130/30 and 200/100)
- Active tax management through loss harvesting on both long and short sides
- Factor tilting capabilities (Quality Value, Multi-Factor)
Real Assets (1)
EIV Capital Fund V
- 21+ years average experience across energy value chain with top-quartile performance since 2009
- Yield-oriented approach emphasizing current cash yield over terminal exit outcomes
- Principal protection through hard asset focus with contractual protections and hedging
Data as of 2026-06-15
These baskets are model portfolios constructed and back-tested using equal weights and annual December 31 rebalancing. They are not actual client portfolios; reported returns do not reflect TOC-23 advisory fees, trading frictions, taxes, or the impact of cash flows that would apply to a real account. The full constituent list for each basket is shown directly under the basket name; the Top-5 and Bottom-5 contributor tables below are presented purely to surface dispersion within the equal-weighted basket and were generated mechanically by ranking the full list — not selected on a discretionary basis.
Long-Term Quality Growth
Equal-weighted, rebalanced Dec 31 · MSFT, NVDA, AVGO, NOW, MRVL, ADBE, GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSCI, ICE, CBOE, JPM, PNC, MA, V, KKR, SCHW, TDG, GE
▲ Top 5 (1Y)
| Ticker | 1Y | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| MRVL | +360.9% | Technology |
| GOOGL | +112.1% | Communication Services |
| AVGO | +59.7% | Technology |
| NVDA | +49.8% | Technology |
| GE | +45.4% | Industrials |
▼ Bottom 5 (1Y)
| Ticker | 1Y | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | -15.2% | Technology |
| KKR | -18.6% | Financial Services |
| ICE | -20.8% | Financial Services |
| ADBE | -47.3% | Technology |
| NOW | -47.3% | Technology |
Year-to-Date Performance
▲ Top 5 (YTD)
| Ticker | YTD | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| MRVL | +246.0% | Technology |
| CBOE | +18.6% | Financial Services |
| GOOGL | +17.4% | Communication Services |
| AVGO | +13.6% | Technology |
| NVDA | +12.6% | Technology |
▼ Bottom 5 (YTD)
| Ticker | YTD | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| MA | -12.6% | Financial Services |
| MSFT | -15.1% | Technology |
| KKR | -23.6% | Financial Services |
| NOW | -29.4% | Technology |
| ADBE | -38.1% | Technology |
Watchlist — Potential Additions
Selection methodology & risks: The items presented below represent a subset of a broader universe and were selected using the methodology described in this section. They are not intended as a recommendation or solicitation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Material risks and limitations applicable to the strategies and instruments referenced are discussed in the underlying offering materials and in TOC-23’s Form ADV Part 2A Brochure. See full disclosures →
Here are five stocks that merit a place on your long-term compounder watchlist:
1. V — Visa Inc.
Visa's structural dominance, high profitability, and capital-light, self-reinforcing network effects make it a resilient, long-term compounder. Recent operational performance has been strong, with Q1 FY2026 delivering $10.9 billion in revenue — a 15% year-over-year increase — alongside continued cross-border transaction expansion and growing Value-Added Services as key drivers of future growth.
2. CNSWF — Constellation Software Inc.
The company acquires small, mission-critical software businesses that serve specific industries, providing essential systems that customers rely on to run their daily operations; in 2025, revenue grew approximately 15%, cash flow from operations increased by 24%, and free cash flow available to shareholders grew by 14%. Acquisitions are typically sustainable, high-cash-flow, mission-critical monopolies, and management has proven to be a master capital allocator, driving consistent ROIC growth to levels of 30% or above.
3. VEEV — Veeva Systems Inc.
Veeva Systems is the software backbone of the global life sciences industry, spanning CRM, clinical trial management, regulatory submissions, and quality systems, with its competitive advantage anchored in deep domain specialization and FDA and EMA regulatory validation requirements, creating high switching costs that make systems irreplaceable once embedded in pharma operations. Q3 FY2026 results demonstrated continued execution with 16% revenue growth and 45% non-GAAP operating margins expanding from 43.5%.
4. FICO — Fair Isaac Corporation
For decades, FICO has served as the undisputed gatekeeper of the American credit system, its three-digit scores acting as the "universal language" for lending decisions. This combination of monopoly-like positioning, recurring revenue, high margins, and capital efficiency makes FICO one of the highest-quality compounders in the financial technology space. Recent results reinforce the durability of the moat: fiscal second-quarter revenue came in at $691.7 million, up 39% year over year, with Scores segment revenue rising 60%, B2B Scores revenue up 72%, and platform software ARR growing 49% with dollar-based net retention at 136%.
5. CSGP — CoStar Group Inc.
CoStar is a dominant force in commercial real estate data, with 35 years of market leadership and a proprietary database that powers its subscription-based analytics, marketplaces, and 3D digital twin technology. In Q1 2026, revenue reached $897 million, a 23% increase year-over-year, and unlike many tech peers, CoStar is not buying growth through dilution — adjusted EBITDA for the quarter jumped 100% year-over-year to $132 million, a signal that heavy marketing spend for Homes.com has peaked and operating leverage is now flowing to the bottom line.
Core Defensive
Equal-weighted, rebalanced Dec 31 · IAU, AEM, GFI, NEM, KO, PG, MCD, KR, COST, WMT, TJX, LLY, DHR, CVS, CCI, VZ, PM, MO, AES, AEP
▲ Top 5 (1Y)
| Ticker | 1Y | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | +84.7% | Basic Materials |
| GFI | +58.5% | Basic Materials |
| CVS | +54.7% | Healthcare |
| AEM | +39.3% | Basic Materials |
| LLY | +38.8% | Healthcare |
▼ Bottom 5 (1Y)
| Ticker | 1Y | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| COST | -0.5% | Consumer Defensive |
| MCD | -2.9% | Consumer Cyclical |
| PG | -3.4% | Consumer Defensive |
| CCI | -6.6% | Real Estate |
| DHR | -9.1% | Healthcare |
Year-to-Date Performance
▲ Top 5 (YTD)
| Ticker | YTD | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| CVS | +27.8% | Healthcare |
| MO | +23.5% | Consumer Defensive |
| VZ | +20.0% | Communication Services |
| KO | +17.9% | Consumer Defensive |
| COST | +14.9% | Consumer Defensive |
▼ Bottom 5 (YTD)
| Ticker | YTD | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| AEM | +1.2% | Basic Materials |
| IAU | -0.4% | N/A |
| MCD | -4.5% | Consumer Cyclical |
| GFI | -6.5% | Basic Materials |
| DHR | -21.2% | Healthcare |
Watchlist — Potential Additions
Selection methodology & risks: The items presented below represent a subset of a broader universe and were selected using the methodology described in this section. They are not intended as a recommendation or solicitation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Material risks and limitations applicable to the strategies and instruments referenced are discussed in the underlying offering materials and in TOC-23’s Form ADV Part 2A Brochure. See full disclosures →
Here are five stocks that stand out as well-constructed defensive names worth adding to the watchlist:
1. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Johnson & Johnson represents a high-quality compounder with defensive earnings, best-in-class balance sheet strength, and a well-covered dividend that positions it as a core long-term income and capital preservation holding. With a beta of just 0.26 and $19.7 billion in trailing free cash flow supporting its dividend, JNJ's minimal correlation to broader market swings is a critical defensive characteristic for risk-averse investors. The company's post-Kenvue spin transformation into a pure-play healthcare entity gives it a leaner, faster-growing profile, with Q1 2026 sales of $24.1 billion, up 9.9% year-over-year, and Goldman Sachs having added it to its U.S. Conviction List.
2. NextEra Energy (NEE). NextEra is the world's largest generator of wind and solar energy and also operates Florida Power and Light, the largest electric utility in the U.S. by retail electricity sales volume — a combination of regulated utility income and fast-growing renewable energy generation that creates a distinctive and defensive business model with stable cash flows from the regulated segment providing a reliable earnings foundation. The company has also announced plans to acquire Dominion Energy in a $66.8 billion deal, prompting Morgan Stanley to raise its price target to $115 and maintain an Overweight rating.
3. Lockheed Martin (LMT). Lockheed's scale and time-tested reputation make the firm an ideal partner for the U.S. government, resulting in a large backlog of work that provides multiyear revenue visibility, and a high baseline of spending and diversified mix of projects help the company generate a consistent level of profits detached from the vagaries of the economic cycle. Lockheed Martin currently holds $10 billion in new defense contracts and a record backlog of $194 billion, and President Trump's proposed defense budget increase to $1.5 trillion by 2027 suggests substantial new contract opportunities across Lockheed's diverse portfolio.
4. Procter & Gamble (PG). Procter & Gamble stands as one of the most dominant players in the global consumer staples landscape, commanding leading positions across Beauty, Health Care, Grooming, Fabric & Home Care, and Baby Care — positioning it as a commanding force benefiting from shelf dominance, retailer leverage, and resilient demand patterns. P&G is expected to return roughly $15 billion to shareholders in 2026 through a combination of $10 billion in dividends and $5 billion in share repurchases, making it a potent capital return story even in a risk-off environment.
5. Republic Services (RSG). Because waste collection and disposal are necessary services across economic cycles, the company's cash flows have historically been less volatile than those of more cyclical sectors, a defensive profile that is relevant for investors seeking to balance portfolios that are heavily exposed to more economically sensitive industries. RSG reinforces its status as a defensive compounder driven by pricing power, disciplined cost control, and robust free cash flow generation with resilient performance across core end markets despite macroeconomic volatility. According to 27 analysts, the average rating for RSG stock is "Buy," with a 12-month price target implying roughly 16% upside from current levels.
Source: Yahoo Finance (price returns); equal-weighted, rebalanced annually Dec 31. Model basket; not an actual client portfolio. Returns shown gross of TOC-23 advisory fees. · as of 2026-06-15 · accessed June 15, 2026
Important Disclosures
Information presented is for informational purposes only. The Oglethorpe Collective, LLC (“TOC-23”) delivers advisory services through Inflection Capital Management, LLC (“ICM”), a registered investment adviser doing business as TOC-23. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. The ideas and opinions expressed herein do not constitute legal, tax, or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. Before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary. Information presented from third parties is believed to be reliable, but no warranty is provided. ICM is not required to update information presented, unless otherwise required by applicable law. For more information about ICM and TOC-23, including our Form ADV Part 2A Brochures, see https://adviserinfo.sec.gov or contact us at (415) 805-8682.
Hypothetical Performance
Sections of this report (including but not limited to Portfolio Construction, Monte Carlo Simulation, Efficient Frontier, Active Equity model baskets, and manager-provided target returns) contain hypothetical performance. Hypothetical performance is necessarily based on several estimates, assumptions and the existing conditions as of the date of this presentation and does not constitute a guarantee of the returns a fund or investment deal will realize upon exit. Hypothetical performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. The returns achieved may be more or less than the target performance described herein, and actual performance may be materially lower than shown. Hypothetical performance results do not represent the impact that future unforeseen material economic and market factors will have on the decision-making process or on estimated valuation and performance returns. Market conditions can vary widely over time and all investments involve risk; transactions will not always be profitable and can result in loss. Upon request, ICM dba TOC-23 will share more information regarding the underlying assumptions used to calculate target performance returns. Hypothetical performance is stated gross of TOC-23 advisory fees (which vary by client and would reduce actual returns); reflects underlying manager fees where applicable.
Market Commentary
Any market commentary represents the opinion of Inflection Capital Management dba The Oglethorpe Collective, LLC. The views are subject to change at any time based on market conditions and are current as of June 15, 2026. This is not intended to be a forecast of future events or guarantee of future results. It is not intended to provide specific advice or to be construed as an offering of securities or recommendation to invest.
Fees
ICM dba TOC-23’s advisory fees will reduce a client’s actual returns by the fee schedule in accordance with the client’s investment advisory agreement.
Cambridge Associates data proprietary. © 2025 Cambridge Associates LLC.