Portfolio Construction
CMA: 2026 10-Year Forecasts • Tax State: FloridaMost Conservative Portfolio
Allocation
| Asset Class | Weight | Exp. Return | Volatility | Skew | Kurt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Bonds | 20.0% | 3.25% | 2.40% | 0.11 | 1.12 |
| HFs Equity Hedge | 19.0% | 9.45% | 13.65% | -0.29 | 2.51 |
| HFs Event-Driven | 13.4% | 7.75% | 10.91% | -1.47 | 7.44 |
| Cash | 12.9% | 2.63% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Long Term UST | 11.3% | 4.65% | 15.14% | 0.17 | 0.93 |
| Muni Bond | 5.0% | 2.87% | 4.67% | -0.29 | 1.71 |
| US Equity (LC) | 5.0% | 5.11% | 16.47% | -0.57 | 0.83 |
| US Equity (SC) | 5.0% | 4.93% | 20.90% | -0.41 | 0.99 |
| Real Estate | 5.0% | 6.30% | 18.53% | -0.68 | 6.37 |
| Private Equity | 2.5% | 8.17% | 22.83% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Private Credit | 1.0% | 7.87% | 18.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Conservative Portfolio
Allocation
| Asset Class | Weight | Exp. Return | Volatility | Skew | Kurt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFs Equity Hedge | 20.0% | 9.45% | 13.65% | -0.29 | 2.51 |
| HFs Event-Driven | 20.0% | 7.75% | 10.91% | -1.47 | 7.44 |
| Long Term UST | 18.3% | 4.65% | 15.14% | 0.17 | 0.93 |
| Private Credit | 7.2% | 7.87% | 18.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Private Equity | 5.9% | 8.17% | 22.83% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Muni Bond | 5.0% | 2.87% | 4.67% | -0.29 | 1.71 |
| US Equity (LC) | 5.0% | 5.11% | 16.47% | -0.57 | 0.83 |
| US Equity (SC) | 5.0% | 4.93% | 20.90% | -0.41 | 0.99 |
| Real Estate | 5.0% | 6.30% | 18.53% | -0.68 | 6.37 |
| ST Bonds | 4.2% | 3.25% | 2.40% | 0.11 | 1.12 |
| HFs Macro | 2.4% | 5.35% | 11.69% | 0.52 | 1.12 |
| Cash | 2.0% | 2.63% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Moderate Portfolio
Allocation
| Asset Class | Weight | Exp. Return | Volatility | Skew | Kurt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFs Equity Hedge | 20.0% | 9.45% | 13.65% | -0.29 | 2.51 |
| HFs Event-Driven | 20.0% | 7.75% | 10.91% | -1.47 | 7.44 |
| Long Term UST | 12.8% | 4.65% | 15.14% | 0.17 | 0.93 |
| Private Credit | 10.6% | 7.87% | 18.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Private Equity | 8.9% | 8.17% | 22.83% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| HFs Multi-Strat | 5.6% | 7.05% | 10.38% | -0.66 | 3.71 |
| Muni Bond | 5.0% | 2.87% | 4.67% | -0.29 | 1.71 |
| US Equity (LC) | 5.0% | 5.11% | 16.47% | -0.57 | 0.83 |
| US Equity (SC) | 5.0% | 4.93% | 20.90% | -0.41 | 0.99 |
| Real Estate | 5.0% | 6.30% | 18.53% | -0.68 | 6.37 |
| Cash | 2.0% | 2.63% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Aggressive Portfolio
Allocation
| Asset Class | Weight | Exp. Return | Volatility | Skew | Kurt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFs Equity Hedge | 20.0% | 9.45% | 13.65% | -0.29 | 2.51 |
| HFs Event-Driven | 20.0% | 7.75% | 10.91% | -1.47 | 7.44 |
| Private Credit | 19.3% | 7.87% | 18.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Private Equity | 16.8% | 8.17% | 22.83% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Muni Bond | 5.0% | 2.87% | 4.67% | -0.29 | 1.71 |
| US Equity (LC) | 5.0% | 5.11% | 16.47% | -0.57 | 0.83 |
| US Equity (SC) | 5.0% | 4.93% | 20.90% | -0.41 | 0.99 |
| Real Estate | 5.0% | 6.30% | 18.53% | -0.68 | 6.37 |
| Cash | 2.0% | 2.63% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| HFs Multi-Strat | 1.9% | 7.05% | 10.38% | -0.66 | 3.71 |
Most Aggressive Portfolio
Allocation
| Asset Class | Weight | Exp. Return | Volatility | Skew | Kurt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFs Equity Hedge | 20.0% | 9.45% | 13.65% | -0.29 | 2.51 |
| HFs Event-Driven | 20.0% | 7.75% | 10.91% | -1.47 | 7.44 |
| Private Equity | 19.0% | 8.17% | 22.83% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Private Credit | 15.1% | 7.87% | 18.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Muni Bond | 5.0% | 2.87% | 4.67% | -0.29 | 1.71 |
| US Equity (LC) | 5.0% | 5.11% | 16.47% | -0.57 | 0.83 |
| US Equity (SC) | 5.0% | 4.93% | 20.90% | -0.41 | 0.99 |
| Real Estate | 5.0% | 6.30% | 18.53% | -0.68 | 6.37 |
| EM Equity | 3.9% | 8.53% | 27.68% | -0.65 | 2.15 |
| Cash | 2.0% | 2.63% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Efficient Frontier — Kelly Higher-Moments Optimization
Asset Location Strategy
Optimized for Florida residencyAsset location can add 50–100+ bps of after-tax alpha annually by placing investments in the most tax-efficient account type based on the tax character of their returns.
Traditional IRA / 401(k)
Roth IRA / Roth 401(k)
Taxable Brokerage
DAF / Charitable Trust
529 Plan
Health Savings Account
| Asset Class | Efficiency | Location | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | Low | Tax-Deferred | Interest taxed as ordinary income |
| ST Bonds | Low | Tax-Deferred | Interest taxed as ordinary income |
| Muni Bond | High | Taxable | Federally tax-exempt income |
| Muni High Yield | High | Taxable | Federally tax-exempt income |
| For. Dev. Bond | Low | Tax-Deferred | Interest income; foreign tax credit in taxable |
| HY Bond | Low | Tax-Deferred | High income taxed at ordinary rates |
| EM Bond | Low | Tax-Deferred | Interest + currency gains as ordinary income |
| Bank Loans | Low | Tax-Deferred | Floating-rate income taxed as ordinary |
| Long Term UST | Moderate | Tax-Deferred | State-exempt but federally taxable |
| US Equity (LC) | High | Taxable | Qualified dividends + LTCG favorable rates |
| US Equity (SC) | Moderate | Either | Higher turnover reduces tax efficiency |
| Int'l Dev. Equity | Moderate | Taxable | Foreign tax credit only in taxable |
| EM Equity | Moderate | Taxable | Foreign tax credit advantage |
| Real Estate | Low | Tax-Deferred | REIT distributions mostly ordinary income |
| Midstream Energy | Moderate | Taxable | Tax-deferred distributions; K-1 complexity in IRA |
| Commod. Fut. | Moderate | Tax-Deferred | 60/40 blended rate but frequent rebalancing |
| Global Infrastructure | Moderate | Either | Mix of dividends and capital gains |
| HFs Equity Hedge | Low | Tax-Deferred | Short-term gains from active trading |
| HFs Event-Driven | Low | Tax-Deferred | Short-term gains and ordinary income |
| HFs Relative Value | Low | Tax-Deferred | Frequent trading generates ST gains |
| HFs Macro | Low | Tax-Deferred | Mixed income types from derivatives |
| Private Equity | Moderate | Either | LTCG on exits; carried interest considerations |
| HFs Multi-Strat | Low | Tax-Deferred | Active multi-strategy generates ST income |
| Private Credit | Low | Tax-Deferred | Interest income taxed at ordinary rates |
Manager Selection — Approved Investments
Data as of: 2026-02-25T11:00:03.708850TOC-23's platform combines proprietary sourcing with Fiducient Advisors due diligence. All investments below have passed both layers.
Platform by Asset Class
Target Returns Overview
ArrowMark Global Opportunity Fund V
Private Credit — Regulatory Capital ReliefArrowMark Global Opportunity Fund V aims to generate low-double digit income-driven net returns by investing in regulatory capital relief securities issued by global financial institutions. The strategy leverages deep bank relationships and specialized underwriting capabilities t…
Roundhouse Multifamily Fund II
Private Real Estate — Value-add multifamily real estateRoundhouse targets emerging, high growth, high barrier-to-entry markets in the Mountain West and Pacific Northwest where they have sourcing and execution advantages. The strategy prioritizes durable cash flows by acquiring and developing projects with enduring physical attributes…
EIV Capital Fund V
Real Assets — Energy Infrastructure - MidstreamEIV Capital Fund V focuses on investing in infrastructure assets essential to the transportation, storage, processing, and sale of both traditional and renewable energy. The fund capitalizes on current capital scarcity and fragmentation in the energy sector to acquire mid-market …
503 Capital Partners Tax-Exempt Credit Opportunities Fund IV, LP
Private Credit — Tax-exempt asset-backed private credit503 Capital Partners targets sectors experiencing structural capital supply-demand imbalances in Education, Senior Living, and Waste Transition. The strategy delivers tax-efficient returns through directly originated, asset-backed loans that are primarily federally tax-exempt, en…
Greybull Stewardship III, LP
Private Equity — Pre-middle market buyoutGreybull targets controlling positions in 'pre-middle market' companies (under $5M EBITDA, under $25M enterprise value) that are typically founder-owned businesses facing scaling challenges. The firm provides strategic guidance and operational resources to help these businesses t…
Continental Realty Opportunistic Retail Fund II
Private Real Estate — Opportunistic retail real estate - open-air shopping centersCRORF II targets opportunistic retail real estate in a sector with strong fundamentals (retail vacancy at 20-year lows, limited new supply, rising rents) and attractive distressed buying conditions. The strategy focuses on value-add opportunities through below-market anchor rents…
11 Beacon Street
Private Real Estate — Value-Add OfficeAcquisition of a well-located Boston office building at a generationally attractive basis following significant valuation reset. The property offers current income from 86% occupancy plus upside through re-leasing expiring space as downtown Boston office market stabilizes. Entry …
Aperio Long/Short Strategies
Public Equity — Long/short equity with active tax managementExtension of Aperio's active tax management using margin and shorting to potentially generate greater tax alpha and/or reduce concentration risk. The strategy seeks to provide more consistent loss harvesting across market cycles while maintaining market-like pre-tax returns throu…
Project Ozark - Lapel's Laundromat Franchise Development
Other — Laundromat / Laundry Services Franchise DevelopmentThis investment capitalizes on three core pillars: defensive recession-resilient consumer behavior in essential laundry services, operational scale advantages through multi-revenue stream optimization including wash-dry-fold and ancillary services, and geographic market penetrati…
Career Allies, Inc. (d.b.a. Tilt)
Venture Capital — Series B Preferred Stock in Human Capital Management SoftwareTilt addresses the growing complexity of leave of absence management for modern distributed workforces through a proprietary tech platform. The company benefits from strong regulatory tailwinds as more states mandate PFML programs, while their hybrid approach of software automati…
Monte Carlo Analysis
Moderate Portfolio • 5,000 sims • Annual rebalancing| Year | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 |
| Year 1 | $9,603,945 | $10,034,260 | $10,506,713 | $10,965,917 | $11,392,924 |
| Year 5 | $10,374,284 | $11,418,645 | $12,658,757 | $13,951,973 | $15,241,256 |
| Year 10 | $12,126,214 | $13,836,465 | $15,996,569 | $18,350,114 | $20,582,868 |
| Year 15 | $14,431,097 | $16,831,828 | $20,040,132 | $23,919,984 | $27,770,375 |
| Year 20 | $17,211,425 | $20,560,968 | $25,304,065 | $31,136,662 | $37,006,448 |
| Year 25 | $20,689,386 | $25,563,458 | $31,858,567 | $40,022,306 | $49,121,204 |
| Year 30 | $25,069,532 | $31,255,257 | $40,356,175 | $51,426,888 | $64,258,326 |
| Year 40 | $37,197,875 | $47,573,119 | $64,155,908 | $85,121,693 | $109,009,669 |
| Year 50 | $54,833,813 | $73,633,359 | $102,212,545 | $138,274,128 | $186,006,186 |
TOC-23 Investment Themes
📊 The concentration of private equity funding into mega…
The concentration of private equity funding into mega funds (>$1B in total fund size) is leaving very good cash flowing businesses that generated less than $10M in EBITDA without private equity suitors and those that are willing to focus on this small market with a capital supply-demand imbalance in our favor
- Private equity mega funds (>$1B) captured 71% of total PE fundraising in 2023, up from 45% in 2010, according to PitchBook data
- The number of PE funds targeting deals under $25M EBITDA decreased by 23% between 2019-2023, while mega funds increased by 41% over the same period per Bain & Company Global Private Equity Report 2024
- Small buyout funds (<$500M) represented only 12% of the $1.2 trillion in total PE assets under management in 2023, down from 28% in 2010 according to Cambridge Associates
- Companies with $5-10M EBITDA saw average purchase price multiples of 4.2x in 2023 versus 8.7x for companies with >$50M EBITDA, indicating lower competition for smaller deals per PitchBook's PE Deal Multiples Report
- The median time between PE fund launches targeting sub-$10M EBITDA companies increased to 6.8 years in 2023 from 4.2 years in 2015, suggesting reduced capital supply in this segment according to Preqin data
⚡ The first derivative of the AI revolution is…
The first derivative of the AI revolution is that the developed world does not have enough energy to support all of the electricity demand from generative artificial intelligence – the entire energy dispatch curve will benefit but especially natural gas and nuclear upstream and midstream investment opportunities in the US.
- Data centers are projected to consume 8% of global electricity by 2030, up from 1% in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Global Energy Outlook 2023
- AI workloads require 10-20x more energy per computation than traditional data center operations, with ChatGPT alone consuming 2.9 watt-hours per query versus 0.3 watt-hours for a Google search, according to Goldman Sachs Research 2024
- US natural gas power generation capacity must increase by 200 GW (60% above current levels) by 2030 to meet projected data center electricity demand, representing $400 billion in infrastructure investment, per Wood Mackenzie Energy Transition Outlook 2024
- Nuclear power capacity additions of 47 GW are planned in the US through 2030, representing $150 billion in investment, with 70% driven by data center co-location agreements, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute 2024 Market Report
- US electricity demand growth is projected at 2.6% annually through 2030 versus 0.5% historical average, with 50% attributed to data center expansion, requiring $2.5 trillion in grid infrastructure investment, per Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2024
🌐 Over time, the world will “de-dollarize” as the…
Over time, the world will “de-dollarize” as the US continues to spend too much money and grow its debt. Also, political actions by the US and the European Union (like seizing Russian assets held at Euroclear and the Federal Bank Reserve Bank of New York) will cause other emerging markets to see non-dollarized assets (both digital and precious metals) for their reserves.
- US federal debt reached $33.7 trillion in Q3 2023, representing 120% of GDP, up from 35% in 1980 (Federal Reserve Economic Data, 2023)
- Central bank gold purchases hit a record 1,136 tonnes in 2022, with emerging markets accounting for 86% of purchases (World Gold Council, 2023)
- The US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves declined to 58.4% in Q4 2022, down from 71% in 1999 (IMF COFER Database, 2023)
- Bilateral trade settlements in local currencies between BRICS nations increased by 65% in 2022, reaching $1.8 trillion (Bank for International Settlements, 2023)
- US federal budget deficit averaged 6.3% of GDP from 2020-2023, compared to 3.2% average from 1980-2019 (Congressional Budget Office, 2023)
Important Disclosures — The Oglethorpe Collective (TOC-23)
This report may include information about your accounts at various custodians and supplied by third party investment managers, administrators and the client. The reporting technology is provided by a third-party vendor that is not affiliated with Inflection Capital Management, LLC (“ICM”) dba The Ogelthorpe Collective, LLC. (TOC-23”). The factual information provided has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and we assume no liability for damages resulting from or arising out of the use of such information. Additionally, because we do not render legal or tax advice, this report should not be regarded as such.
Although every attempt has been made to make the information contained herein as complete as possible, its accuracy is not guaranteed by ICM and should not be considered as a replacement for confirmations, statements and tax forms that should be retained for tax purposes you receive from your custodian(s) or other financial institutions. Those statements are your primary source of information regarding your holdings, valuations, transactions, and other important and relevant disclosures applicable to your accounts and investments. You are encouraged to compare the account information in this report with the account information sent to you by your custodian. The information contained in this report is not the official record of your account(s) and investments. It has been prepared to assist you with your investment planning and is for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation for a purchase or sale of any securities or other financial instrument. The data contained in this report should not be used as a sole basis for making any financial decisions and is provided for informational purposes only. Information as to current ownership and cost basis of assets held at other financial institutions is based upon information provided to ICM by the client.
Values of assets “held away” are manually entered based on the information from your current statement(s) provided by the respective Fund(s) or the management of the Investment. We have not reviewed, independently valued, verified, compared to other pricing sources or otherwise performed due diligence on said valuation information and historical data and make no representations or warranties with respect to its accuracy. If there are any discrepancies between this consolidated investment summary report and your individual account statement(s), you should rely on your individual account statements as provided by the Fund, or the management of the Investment.
The performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate and thus an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less that their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than return data quoted herein. All performance data, while obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, are not guaranteed for accuracy.
Indices which might be included in this report are for purposes of comparing your returns to the returns on a broad-based index of securities most comparable to the types of securities held in your account(s). Although your account(s) invest in securities which are generally similar in type to the related indices, the particular issuers, industry segments, geographic regions, and weighting of investments in your account do not necessarily track the index. The indices assume reinvestment of dividends and are unmanaged, not available for direct investment and do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses.
Projected income does not represent actual income and should not be interpreted as an indication of such. Actual income may be materially lower than projections. Forward looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, some of which are beyond the control of ICM. There can be no assurance that projections will match realized outcomes.
Any market commentary represents the opinion of ICM. The views are subject to change at any time based on market conditions and are current as of the date indicated on the materials. This is not intended to be a forecast of future events or guarantee of future results. It is not intended to provide specific advice or to be construed as an offering of securities or recommendation to invest.
CMA: TOC23_CMA.xlsx (2026 10-Year). Generated February 25, 2026. Monte Carlo: 5,000 sims, annual rebalancing.